Monday, 7 December 2009

Patch 3.3 Gold Part 2 - Borean Leather/HBL and Arctic Fur

The idea behind this is that come 3.3 you will be able to use 10 heavy borean leather to buy arctic fur. So HBL prices will rise(more demand) and arctic fur prices will fall(more supply). Supply and Demand you see.

So for god's sake dump your arctic fur now. The price WILL drop.

But, will the price of heavy leather rise? Well that doesn't just depend on the 'demand' it will also depend on the supply. It may be that everyone and their mangy fucking dog have the same idea and have been stockpiling leather and the supply outstrips demand and the price actually drops.

Work It Out.
So, as soon as the patch drops and regularly thereafter, you want to be comparing the price of 1 arctic fur vs 10 heavy borean leather vs 60 borean leather and then create/exchange to whatever form is most profitable. But what if all markets tank?

You have a guild bank full of heavy borean leather you can do fuck all with except sell at a loss.

NO. You have a guild bank full of normal borean leather that you get your leatherworker to turn into Nerubian Legguards. Then you have your disenchanter and his new macro "/cast Disenchant /use Nerubian Legguards".

Each stack of leather will make 2.5 legguards and each legguard will DE into 2-3 infinite dusts. Each dust will sell for 2-5 gold depending on your server.

Do It Quick!
But be quick DE'ing if market fails. If there are lots of people with a warehouse of leather to get rid of a lot of them will be doing this. You want to sell your infinite dust in the first couple of weeks while there is enough demand to outstrip supply because lots and lots of raiders are enchanting new gear from Icecrown.

The Maths.
You need to check out the prices on your server, especially the infinte dust (Ours has been dropping below 3 gold) to figure out how much you can buy borean leather for in both the good and the bad scenarios.

Good Scenario: Arctic Fur(1) 50g pre 3.3 and Borean Leather(60) 24g pre 3.3. Means they'll probably level out at 36g. That's 12g per stack of leather. You can gamble that buying borean under 12g/stack is going to profit.

Bad Scenario: It didn't come off. You need to craft and DE. Say you get 2 infinite Dust per legguard and your infinite dust price dropped from 3g to 2g. (We're talking worst case here hopefully). So you get 5 dusts per stack of leather which you can sell for 5 x 2g = 10g.

So, as long as you spend less than 10g/stack on leather you should win either way. The only way to lose is if the infinite dust price really tanks.

I have 2 guild bank tabs of leather that I can't wait to get rid of.

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